Ken Paxton's Homes Multiply, His Poll Numbers Don't

Trump's Justice Department indicted a New York attorney general over one house. It has said nothing about a Texas one with three.

Start with the number that should end a career in a red state. A Fox News poll conducted July 23-27 found Democrat James Talarico leading Ken Paxton 51 percent to 48 percent¹, and this is the important part: that is the first survey in which either candidate cracked 50 percent, and it happened for the Democrat.⁷ Texas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in more than three decades. The pollster's own Republican, Daron Shaw, did not sugarcoat it. He said Paxton's "bruising" primary left scars, and that Paxton has considerable work to do with non-MAGA Republicans and independents.⁶

Here is why. More voters worry Paxton lacks the character to serve than worry Talarico is too extreme, and roughly one in four non-MAGA Republicans said they would cross over and vote for the Democrat.⁵ When your own party's moderates are shopping for the exit, that is not a messaging problem. That is a Paxton problem.

And the Paxton problems keep filing themselves. Last summer the Associated Press reported that Ken and Angela Paxton signed mortgage papers claiming three separate houses, one outside Dallas and two in Austin, each as their primary residence, a move experts said could shave tens of thousands of dollars off their loans.^9,10 The savings scale up fast. Knowingly making false statements on mortgage documents violates both federal and state law, and it is against Texas law to collect a homestead tax break on two separate properties.¹⁰ Savor the irony: Paxton's own office is one of the primary agencies tasked with investigating mortgage fraud.⁸

Now watch the double standard operate in daylight. Trump's DOJ indicted New York AG Letitia James in October 2025 for classifying a single Virginia house as a secondary residence instead of an investment property, a call that saved her an estimated $17,837.¹¹ Paxton is alleged to have done a bigger version of that trick three times over, with a homestead exemption double-dipped on top, and the estimated savings run into the hundreds of thousands, not $17,837.¹¹ The DOJ's response to the Republican? Silence. Analysts told CBS it is unlikely Paxton faces the federal scrutiny that hit James, and doubtful he faces much trouble in Texas either.⁸ One rule for James. Another for Ken. MUCK that.

The money is dirty coming and going. In an August 2025 letter the FEC asked Paxton's campaign to explain or return roughly $658,000 in contributions that appear to violate federal law, flagging more than 100 donations that exceeded the $3,500-per-election limit, a sum finance experts called far beyond the norm.¹³ That was not a one-off. In January the agency demanded the campaign clear up another $125,000, at least the third time regulators pressed Paxton to explain donations that appear to break the law.¹² And just this past week, a July 20 letter from the campaign told the FEC it had returned $17,500 in flagged contributions, the largest single refund totaling $7,000.¹² Seventeen grand back against six-figure questions. Cute.

Then there is the marriage he managed to bury before a jury could hear about it. Angela Paxton filed for divorce last July on "biblical grounds," accusing her husband of adultery.³ The trial that would have aired all of it under Texas open-courts rules? Gone. A Collin County judge struck the June divorce trial from the calendar barely a week after Paxton beat Cornyn, and his lawyers say the couple has made "substantial progress toward an amicable resolution."⁴ Convenient timing is Paxton's signature perfume.

So he is out selling tax deductions. Paxton is launching a tour with stops in Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, McAllen and San Antonio to promote an economic plan built on letting households keep more through tax breaks.² A man carrying three primary residences wants to lecture Texas about affordability. There are two kinds of grift. The kind that hides, and the kind that runs for Senate. MUCK you, Ken.