Fox News Just Handed Ken Paxton a Poll He Can't Spin Away

Character is not a slogan. It is a ledger, and the bill always comes due.

This week Fox News, not MSNBC, not some Austin lefty shop, published a poll showing Democrat James Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race. Talarico holds a 3-point edge, 51 percent to 48 percent, inside the margin of error, in a contest reshaped by character concerns and a GOP unity gap.⁷ The survey was conducted July 23-27 among 1,006 registered Texas voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.⁸ Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide in more than three decades. Sit with that.

Here is the number that should keep Paxton's consultants awake. Fifty-nine percent of Texas voters said they have serious concerns about whether Paxton has the character to serve in the Senate, while 47 percent said they worry Talarico is too extreme.⁶ Trump endorsed him. He won the primary. And nearly six in ten voters in a deep-red state still look at Ken Paxton and see a man they don't trust. One quarter of non-MAGA Republicans are backing Talarico outright.⁷

Why? Because the receipts are long and the ink is permanent. Paxton's candidacy has been scandal-ridden, dogged by questions about alleged voter fraud, lavish vacations with a woman some call his "mistress," and his office's plea deal with child sex predator Adam Hoffman.¹ That last one is not going away. Paxton's office took over the McLennan County case after the local district attorney recused himself, and after a hung jury, prosecutors offered Hoffman a misdemeanor plea deal under which he served 29 days in jail and never had to register as a Texas sex offender. Talarico wants the paper trail. He calls it an "Epstein-style sweetheart deal" and says, "We don't need any more pedophile protectors in our government," after Paxton's office denied his records request. Paxton's team fired back that Talarico is exploiting a child victim for political gain. Read that exchange twice and ask who's dodging.

And dodge he does. This week, in reporting on the Senate race, Paxton was covered flatly ducking questions from the press.¹ The family-values crusader has his own domestic ledger, too. His wife, Republican state Senator Angela Paxton, filed for divorce in July 2025 on "biblical grounds," citing "recent discoveries," and alleged in her filing that her husband had committed adultery. He denies all infidelity allegations. The man who built a career opposing others' private lives cannot keep his own out of the Collin County courthouse.

So what's the campaign's answer to a poll like this? Tax deductions. On July 31 Paxton unveiled an economic plan built around letting households keep more through tax deductions, launching a tour with stops in the Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, McAllen and San Antonio areas.³ A policy PDF and a bus tour, deployed to bury a character deficit that a Trump endorsement couldn't cure. Meanwhile his old party's money is voting with its feet. An Axios analysis of federal campaign finance data found few of John Cornyn's major donors have thrown their weight behind Paxton since he beat Cornyn in the May runoff.

The bill always comes due. Fox News just read it aloud. MUCK YOU, Ken.